Dose 217: How Quarterly Upsells Convert 20-30% After Checkout

This week’s dose is also a full podcast interview with Varun Kunrda about making the most of post-purchase upsells. Tune in on your favorite platform:

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Matt here with your weekly Subscription Prescription 💊

I had a great conversation this week with Varun Kundra, co-founder of AfterSell by Rokt. If you run a subscription program on Shopify, there's a good chance you're already using his product. I went through our client roster in my head and couldn't come up with one that isn't.

The reason I wanted him on is a feature that just went live: quarterly subscription upsells on the post-purchase page.

A year and a half ago I was working with a brand trying to reverse engineer how Grüns was pulling this off. The answer turned out to be custom code hitting their subscription platform directly. Great for a hyperscaler with engineers to spare. Not so great for everyone else.

Now it's a native integration with Skio, Loop, and Recharge, and the conversion rates Varun shared are 20 to 30%.

So let's talk about why that number is possible, and how to think about upsells more broadly so you don't waste the best real estate in your funnel.

Why this matters

Every subscription program stands on three pillars: subscriber count, average order value, and how long people stick around. A post-purchase upsell moves the second one. A quarterly upgrade moves the second and third at the same time, before the customer has even seen their order confirmation.

Most tactics pull one lever. This one pulls two.

1. The post-purchase page is where the bigger ask belongs

Here's the detail I think most brands get wrong. They put the quarterly option on the product page, the customer picks monthly, and that's the end of the conversation.

But the customer who just checked out is in a different state than the one who was still browsing. They've made a decision. They've committed, in a small way, to a regimen or a protocol or a change they want in their life. Varun called it a mini commit, and I think that's exactly right.

Once someone has made that small commitment, they're far more open to a bigger one. If you're confident enough to start, why wouldn't you buy three months?

The mechanics matter too. The offer sits between checkout and the thank you page, and there's nothing else on the screen. No navigation, no cart, no distractions. One offer, one click, and it gets added to the original order. No second checkout.

So here's the sequence I recommend. One, two, and three month options on the product page. A subscription upsell or a complementary product in the cart. And if they didn't take quarterly, the quarterly offer post-purchase.

Still a no? Put it in the billing reminder. Put it in the subscriber portal. You get more than one shot at this.

Takeaway: Stop treating the product page as your only chance to sell a longer commitment. The post-purchase page catches people at peak intent, and it should carry your biggest ask.

2. Quarterly solves problems on both sides of the ledger

I spent years in logistics before I got into subscriptions, so this part is personal. The cost to ship three units at once is always lower than shipping three units one at a time. Always.

That margin is the whole game. It's what lets you make the quarterly offer genuinely stupid to say no to.

The framing I like best is "get a refund on your next order." Instead of a percentage off, you're telling someone the savings on a three month commitment cover what they just spent. For a customer who already believes in the product, that lands.

Think about what the quarterly cohort does to your numbers. AOV goes up. Fulfillment cost per unit goes down. And you've frontloaded three months of LTV into a single transaction, which means fewer billing attempts, fewer failed payments, and fewer moments where someone can quietly cancel.

This works best for single hero product brands and regimen products. If you sell one supplement, you don't have a catalog to cross-sell. What you have is a protocol. "You're in, so make the three-month leap" is a stronger offer than any add-on you could invent.

Takeaway: Run the math on your shipping cost per unit at monthly versus quarterly. That gap is your offer budget. Spend it making the quarterly upgrade a no-brainer.

3. Relevance and framing beat the discount knobs

When I asked Varun what separates upsells that convert from upsells that don't, I expected to hear about discount depth or countdown timers. Those matter, and you should test them. But they aren't the lever.

The lever is whether the offer answers three questions. Why is this here? Why should I pay this much? How does it fit with what I just bought?

I've seen too many thank you pages that feel like a cash grab. I buy bread and get offered a bread slicer. Technically related, obviously irrelevant. Those offers don't convert, and they cheapen the moment.

The pattern varies by category. For supplements, more of the same wins: a bigger supply, or a second product that makes the goal easier to hit. For beauty and apparel, complete the set wins. In both cases the upsell feels like a natural next step in a journey the customer already started.

Two tactical notes. First, stop the scroll. A lot of shoppers will reflexively click no or close the tab. A line like "your order isn't complete yet" makes them actually read. Push too hard and it feels like a trap. Push too little and the page gets skipped.

Second, the default post-purchase rendering looks dated. AfterSell now lets you upload images for each element of the page (progress bar, offer, proof), so design it properly and check mobile separately. Video is now possible on that page too, which for founder-led brands is a chance to say "you made the right call" in your own voice.

Takeaway: Before you touch the discount, write down why the offer belongs on that page and how it completes what the customer just bought. If you can't answer that in one sentence, the offer isn't ready.

Bottom line: The post-purchase page is the highest-intent moment in your entire funnel, and most subscription brands leave it empty or fill it with junk. Use it for your biggest, most relevant ask. For most consumable brands, that's the quarterly upgrade.

It converts at 20 to 30% because the customer has already decided they're in. You're just giving them a cheaper, easier way to commit to what they already want.

Until next Tuesday, that's your Subscription Prescription. 💊

- Matt Holman 🩺