Dose #183: Subscription Armaggedon

Matt here with your weekly Subscription Prescription 💊

This may be my favorite dose of the year. This week, I sat down with some of the greatest subscription minds and practitioners in the space. We talked about the current state of subscriptions, like what’s working or being underutilized. We talked about our favorite subscription features (and built our own must-have idea of a subscription app), analytics, and much, much more.

This week’s dose is also a full podcast episode with Bryan Starck, Jordan Narducci, and Andriy Rudnyk. It’s impossible to condense everything we discussed into a single newsletter, so this one is a must-listen:

Analytics, Klaviyo, and Subscriptions - A Deep Dive

One thing you’ll see in this newsletter and podcast episode is a frustration with analytics. It’s difficult to get the information you want in a manner that is repeatable and accurate. That’s why I’m always on the hunt for new platforms and approaches.

Flaunt is creating something special - more of a conversational analytics tool that lets you ask questions - instead of just building out dashboards.

Want to see it in action? Join us for a join webinar on diving into Klaviyo analytics on December 16th, 12pm ET. You’ll not only see how it works, but we’ll be sharing some of the key data we pay attention to when auditing subscription brands and Klaviyo.

Don’t miss out! Grab your spot here:

What’s Good, What’s Bad, and Where the Industry is Headed

When I invited Bryan Starck, Jordan Narducci, and Andriy Rudnyk onto the podcast, I knew we’d get deep fast.

All three of them run top-tier subscription-focused agencies. We spend a lot of time talking shop behind the scenes, but this episode gave us a chance to say the quiet parts out loud. We dove into what’s wrong with today’s subscription stack, and what really needs to happen in 2026 if brands want to keep growing.

If you’re building a DTC subscription program, this might be one of the most important episodes we’ve ever put together.

Here are 5 big takeaways - each one with tactical implications for the way you approach acquisition, retention, tech, and team structure next year.

1. The Buy Box Is Underrated and Underutilized

Jordan brought this up early, and I couldn’t agree more: the “buy box” (that section on your PDP where a customer picks one-time vs subscription) is still under-optimized for most brands.

Yes, we’ve seen brands implement features like “Subscribe More, Save More” or tiered incentives - but the UI still often defaults to the wrong setting, or forces a yes/no decision without any guidance.

This is the biggest place you can positively impact your subscription program. This is where the fastest-growing and strongest brands spend most of their time: testing offers, design, and weighing the results.

💡 Try this: Andriy mentioned a test he’s running where neither option (one-time or subscription) is preselected - but you can’t add to cart without choosing one. It’s a small tweak, but it reinforces intentionality, which often results in higher-quality subscribers. It's based on the concept of “choice architecture” from the book Hooked—let the customer decide with clarity.

📦 Real-world example: Grüns is testing some killer options on their PDP. They offer layers of choice, like one- or two-person plans (to push bulk), flavor preferences, and delivery frequency. It sounds complex, but the UX is clean, and the intentionality at checkout drives better-fit subscribers with higher LTV.

2. Analytics Are the Bottleneck for Better Strategy

All four of us agreed: the analytics in most subscription apps are bad. Not because they show nothing, but because they often don’t show what matters.

You can’t fix churn if you can’t see the story behind it. You can’t forecast LTV or model different acquisition strategies without historical views of renewal behavior. And none of the platforms let you segment subscribers by meaningful cohorts (e.g. LTV bands, churn triggers, order number).

Subscription apps are certainly working to make improvements, with apps like Autoship Cloud and SKIO rolling out new analytics, and I know Recharge is rolling out some summary tools that will be very useful.

📊 Real-world example: Bryan’s team manually builds Excel models for every client to understand churn by product, billing cadence, and renewal cycle. It may take a little work, but you can build your own accurate views of subscription data to better understand customer LTV and the effects of changes to your program.

💡 The takeaway: No one platform has a perfect view of LTV or churn. You need to understand the limitations of your data, build the models you need when they aren’t available, and be consistent in how you track everything.

3. Stop Maximizing Opt-In Rates (Aim for a Better Fit)

This one generated the most heated debate.

Too many brands are still trying to maximize subscription opt-in at all costs. That’s the wrong goal.

Opting more people into subscription (especially with steep first-order discounts) may look good on the front end. But it often leads to brutal second-month churn, poor product-fit, and overwhelming customer support load.

Instead, optimize for order 3 retention. That’s where sustainable LTV starts.

📉 Real-world example: Jordan shared a brand with an 85% opt-in rate… and 25–30% churn by month two. His solution? Reduce the subscription discount. Fewer subscribers, but better quality ones. Better cash flow, better retention, and better LTV.

💡 The takeaway: There’s always a “sweet spot” between opt-in rate and churn. You’ll find it by testing first-order offers, incentives, and cadence - but stop assuming “more subscribers” = “more revenue.” That logic only works short term.

4. Subscription 3.0 = Predictive, Personalized, and Conversational

If Subscription 1.0 was shady and Subscription 2.0 was flexible, Subscription 3.0 is personalized, predictive, and powered by real-time communication.

We’re heading toward a world where customers don’t log into a portal—they just text the brand and get exactly what they need. And the best brands will know, before the customer even asks, what action they’re most likely to take.

💬 Real-world example: Jordan mentioned how Recharge and other tools are already enabling conversational SMS to handle skips, delays, and winbacks. But imagine if that channel layered in intelligence - like knowing your zip code, seasonal behavior, product usage, and order number - to personalize the entire experience.

📦 Another use case: High-retention brands are already building onboarding sequences tied to order number. What you say after the first delivery should be totally different from what you say after order four.

💡 The takeaway: Future-proof your CX by making subscription support feel like a concierge, not a cancellation trap. Build flows that reflect where a subscriber is in their journey, not just what they ordered.

5. The Real 2026 Opportunity: Company-Wide Subscription Focus

The biggest unlock for subscription growth in 2026?

Not better tactics. Not new apps. Not even better retention flows.

It’s organizational focus.

Andriy said it best: “Most of the industry’s retention problems aren’t acquisition or churn; they’re change management.” The marketing team pushes subs hard to get the CAC/Payback math to work. But the retention, support, and product teams get left holding the bag.

🧠 Real-world example: Some brands get 60–80% opt-in but still lose 60% of those subscribers by order three. Why? Because they never built the systems to support the surge. No onboarding, no cadence calibration, no customer education.

💡 The takeaway: Build a subscriber-first company. That means measuring CAC to LTV, not just CAC to purchase. That means making your best-fit customers the North Star for product development, CRM, and customer success. And yes, that means more budget for retention and testing offers.

Final Dose:

The brands that will win in 2026 aren’t just the ones with better software.

They’re the ones with a clear view of lifetime value, a disciplined CAC/payback model, and an obsessive focus on acquiring better-fit customers. Not just more of them.

The tools will catch up. But until then, your strategy can’t wait.

Until next Tuesday, that’s your Subscription Prescription. 💊

 - Matt Holman 🩺

The Subscription Doc