Dose #182: Stop Forcing Subscriptions - What Actually Drives LTV

Matt here with your weekly Subscription Prescription 💊

This week we’re talking about whether subscriptions are the best option for your business. We start out talking about how subscription are not the end-all-be-all, get into how subscription-only offers may be hurting your business, and we end up talking about high AOV offers.

This week’s dose is also a full podcast episode. Get more details and explanations on this week’s topic when you listen in on your favorite platform:

Why You Might Not Have a Subscription Business

I’ve talked with dozens of founders this year who proudly say, “We’re launching subscriptions!” But when we dig into it, what they really mean is, “We added a subscribe & save toggle on our PDP and hoped for the best.”

The problem is, most of those businesses don’t actually have a subscription model — they just have a product that people could subscribe to. That’s not the same thing. Or, they’re forcing subscriptions onto a product where it doesn’t make much sense.

So this week, as we wrap up the year, I want to share three things I’ve been repeating over and over in client calls. Consider this your end-of-year reality check.

1. Subscriptions are just one mechanism for driving repeat purchases

The goal isn’t to have a subscription. The goal is to have customers come back.

You can do that with a subscription model, but you can also do it through bulk orders, loyalty flows, smart retargeting, and clear usage education. If your customers buy three to six months’ worth of product when it’s on sale — and your marketing is reinforcing that — forcing a 30-day subscription might actually kill retention, not help it.

I’ve seen brands do just fine without subscriptions. I’ve also seen them misuse subscriptions and hurt LTV in the process. What matters is knowing how your customers want to buy — then giving them the right path to do it again.

The ultimate goal here is driving up LTV; subscriptions is just often an easy path to make that happen. But it’s not the only path.

2. Subscription-only offers aren’t always the win you think they are

There’s a trend right now around locking first-time customers into subscription-only offers. It makes the revenue look great on day one — but those customers often cancel fast, feel tricked, or churn before you ever recover the CAC.

I’ve seen plenty of brands increase both conversion rate and LTV by adding a one-time purchase option. You don’t always lose when people choose one-time — sometimes they convert more confidently, and come back later with less friction.

Yes, it’s worth testing. Yes, I’ve seen both approaches work. But if you’re relying on tricking people into subscription because you think it’s better for LTV, you’re probably not looking at the full picture.

LTV is the ultimate goal, but you do need overall revenue to be strong as well. A subscription-only offer can mean everyone starts with a subscription, but it might mean your overall revenue is lower.

3. High upfront AOV can be just as powerful as subscriptions — sometimes more

There’s nothing wrong with selling $150 worth of product up front. It gives you cash. It gives you runway. And if your customers don’t need to replenish for 4–6 months, locking them into a 30-day subscription just creates friction and overdelivery.

What matters more than mechanics is value capture over time. Sometimes a high AOV up front gives you better margin, better cash flow, and even better long-term retention when you build email/SMS flows to bring them back.

In fact, I’ve seen one-time buyers who come back and then subscribe turn out to be more valuable than first-order subscribers. And when you add in a strong membership layer, that value multiplies even further.

The bottom line:

Subscriptions aren’t always the answer. They're a tool. A powerful one — but still just a tool.

Before you prioritize a subscription program, make sure you’ve tested whether it’s the best way to generate profit, build LTV, and serve your customers. Sometimes you’ll find a better path. And if subscriptions are the right model for you, then make sure you’re using them intentionally — not just because someone on your board told you to.

Until next Tuesday, that’s your Subscription Prescription. 💊

 - Matt Holman 🩺

The Subscription Doc